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Cake day: August 20th, 2024

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  • Right, Obama didn’t snap his fingers and fix every problem in the world or country, but it really felt like we were finally getting to a point where we had a new liberal voting coalition which would start to push US politics left, so that we could finally unwind a lot of those underlying legacy issues.

    Fixing the core issues which created this “obligate imperialism” in the first place were never going to be fixed in the span of one decade, but Obama arguably set us up to grind out more progress in the next administration.

    That’s why this whole thing is so frustrating. We were on the path to a supreme court majority and burying a lot of old school conservative ideas in the coming decades, and now we are farther away than ever, because so many people can’t see the long game.


  • It was 2014. That was the final year of that Obama high where things really felt like they were turning a corner before we were slowly confronted with a world where Donald Trump might actually be president, and the only one standing in his way was somehow Hillary Clinton, a woman that Republicans had been preparing to beat for literally 20 years.












  • From a purely traffic load perspective, the whole “fast lane” thing doesn’t make a huge difference, and the aggressive obsession with it is actually a big part of the psychology which creates traffic in the first place. Traffic capacity is generally optimized when everyone is traveling close to the same speed and has enough following distance to safely maintain that speed, which is why speed limits are set for the slowest road users. Just in general, speed does not increase road capacity beyond a certain fairly low limit because it requires dramatically increased following distance, or in the absence of such responsible behavior, it massively increases the frequency of traffic disruption.

    The worst case is a few people traveling much faster than the slowest road users, as these few users both take up more space, and cause more disruption. The “fast lane” concept is rooted firmly in an unfortunate behavioral reality and has basically no real scientific basis beyond that. Even if you had perfect robot drivers with perfect reaction time and the ability to see far ahead of themselves, the critical capacity speed only increases slightly because the maximum stoping distance is still limited by rubber and asphalt.



  • Right, if you think about the creation of traffic as a negative speed wave which causes compression, and traffic alleviation as a positive speed wave which requires rarefaction, then it becomes clear why traffic is so stubborn. When people are so bunched together, no positive speed wave can propagate. Which is why you literally get to to the point where the original idiot slammed on the brakes and the traffic magically disintegrates. If everyone stayed 5 car lengths apart in traffic, that alleviation would actually propagate backwards as fast as the initial congestion.